Multiply 365 Day 245 - Crash and burn, the fantasy football draft analysis edition

 

While I had planned on doing a lengthy post about my fantasy draft analysis from last night, I will get to that but something happened last night that merits mention here. People sometimes ask me how and why I would live in a city and not have a car. And it is even a question I sometimes ask myself. While it isn't a big thing most days, there are times when sitting on a city bus after shopping, or while home visiting family that I think, you know, a car would be most helpful in this situation. But then I remember why I don't. There is the gas, and the insurance and the upkeep, all of which costs money, money that I either don't have or am unwilling to spend on such items. I did have a car a while back, for a little over a year. It was a 1986 Chrysler Lebaron, I think it costs about $500 used. Nothing very fancy, a beater car more than anything else. It was already 10 years old when I got it, with significant mileage on it. But it did get me from point A to point B, so it was serving a purpose. Then one night, while I was fast asleep it started snowing. City crews sprung into action to make sure the streets were clear, and usually anything involving the city and trying to do something right ends up backfiring in some manner. This was no exception, I woke up the next morning only to see that a snowplow had literally ran right down the driver side of my car, denting the entire side in. The car wasn't undriveable, though getting the door open was problematic, but what irked me was that there was no information left at all. Not even a note saying sorry about your car. And this wasn't an accident where I was out driving and somebody hit me, or I hit somebody but just that the only thing I had done wrong was park my car along the street. It was at that moment that I said never again. Why would I get a car only to know it could be fucked up without me even being in it?

I bring this story up because of events that happened last night. While I was sitting here banging away on the laptop (I think I was playing the new season of Madden on Facebook), I hear a bang outside, and then another and yet another. Withing moments, from the time I was able to gather a pair of shorts and wander to the door there were about 20 cops outside my apartment in the street. Apparently the police were chasing someone for some reason, an assumption I make because the lead car was a state police car and usually the city police handle all matters within the city itself, so whatever happened must have started outside the city and made its way here. But when I opened the door, there was a tan car turned sideways about half a house up the street and the cops were dragging two occupants of the car out in handcuffs, and the tan car had apparently plowed into a red car parked along the street, which proceeded to slam into at least three other cars including one belonging to a girl that lives in the house in front of my apartment. Her only thing she did wrong was park in her own driveway, she wasn't even parked along the street, the mistake I had made years ago, she was completely off the road. Yet because she parked toward the end of the driveway, her car was on the receiving end of another car that was hit and propelled forward, so she was the proud recipient of coming outside to see the entire back end of her car was smashed in, as well as having the back bumper completely ripped off. I can't say how happy I am that I don't have to worry about such things. Just give me my bus fare or my bike and I am more than content.

Okay, enough of that. I do have a fantasy draft to break down here. And fueled with the second half of my Jo Jo's omelet that I threw in the microwave this morning and a cup of coffee from my corner store I think I am ready to take a look back and see just how good or bad I did in my fantasy draft.

I entered last night's draft coming off a third place finish from the previous year. It is the third straight year I was able to add a fantasy trophy to my Yahoo profile, after taking 1^st place the previous two years, but if second place is the first loser then third place is the second one. So we need to get back to where all of the glory lies in first place. We may be back to playing for money this year, George still hasn't worked out all of the bells and whistles as to how much it will be (the numbers bandied about run from $20-$50 per team) but they all fit within my budget, we used to charge $100 per team, so this is a discounted rate for sure. I think it was brought back more just to make sure people pay attention to their teams, because when nothing was on the line but bragging rights it was easy for some to just ignore their team after a while if the season got off to a bad start. Nothing ventured, nothing lost and all that jazz. So if venturing makes the league a little more competitive then I am all for it.

I entered the draft room and found that I would be selecting 3^rd this year, a position that I really didn't want to be honest. I even offered to trade spots with someone (even though it realistically can't be done) just to get out of the 3 spot. The reason for this is primarily there are just too many questions at the top of the draft board. I would argue that 3 of the top 5 players (according to Yahoo's ranking) come with problems for me. In the list of the top 5 players were the following; 1) Adrian Peterson, 2) Arian Foster, 3) Ray Rice, 4) Chris Johnson and 5) Jamaal Charles. To me Peterson and Rice are the safest picks in that group. Foster has only had one good season so far, and is reportedly having hamstring issues, plus he has capable backups in Ben Tate and Derrick Ward so he could see less playing time, at least early on, Johnson sat out all preseason in a contract dispute and hasn't even faced contact in a preseason game, so there is no saying he will be ready to go come week 1 and Charles also suffers from not a large enough body of work for me to go all in on him in the top 5 picks. Plus his backup, Thomas Jones, isn't a slouch either, rushing for over 800 yards last year. Depending on how the two people pick ahead of me, I could be stuck choosing among three guys that I have issues with. If I am picking later in round 1 maybe some of these decisions get made for me, or really late I can probably double up on two top flight wide receivers and worry about running backs later on. But that wasn't my luck this year, I was firmly planted in the three spot. The first pick came and there went Adrian Peterson, so there is now just one pick ahead of me and the envelope please.......Arian Foster. Foster may turn out to be a great pick, even at #2, but I was happy that one of my safe picks was available at #3 so I took........

1. Ray Rice RB, Baltimore – I would argue the best pick available at the #3 spot. It should be noted that I might not have been the only one with such reservations on the available running backs as the 4^th pick ended up being Aaron Rodgers, leaving Johnson and Charles to fall to 5 and 6 respectively.

2. Felix Jones RB, Dallas – This may be a reach on my part, but his primary competition at running back is gone, and Jones, despite limited touches last year, still had 1300 yards from scrimmage in a back up role (850 rushing, 450 receiving). The only bad thing here is that my 1^st and 2^nd round picks have a bye on the same exact week.

3. Vincent Jackson WR, San Diego – Again a reach, but Jackson's problem last year was that he held out and didn't play most of the year in San Diego. Those contract issues have since been dealt with, his previous two full seasons he had over 120 catches and over 2200 receiving yards. So a 60 catch, 1000 yard season is certainly within his wheelhouse.

4. Brandon Lloyd WR, Denver – If ever there were a case to be made on how bad of a QB Alex Smith in San Francisco really is, it would be that he couldn't do anything with this guy. In his first year in Denver, with capable if not great wide receivers around him, he easily emerged as the best of the bunch, with 1448 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. The idea that this guy was available 10 picks into the 4^th round boggles my mind. Again though I have a bye issue, as my first two wide recivers will also be sharing the same bye week. Our standard lineup is QB, RB, RB, TE, WR, WR, (RB/WR/TE), K, DEF, so there will definitely be weeks where I am rolling three running backs and weeks where I am rolling three wide receivers or even two tight ends, depending on how the season plays out.

5. Matt Schaub QB, Houston – By this time, 8 quarterbacks had come off the board (though Peyton Manning was still available) but I took what looked to be the safest bet of the remainder of them, a starter good for 4000 yards, throwing to some of the best players in the league at their position, including Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and Owen Daniels.

6. Fred Jackson RB, Buffalo – I was happy he was here, I still have the bye week issue to confront from my first two picks and I end up getting a starting running back who had over 1000 yards from scrimmage last year (927 rushing, 215 receiving). It should be noted that this was the round that the early adopters start hopping on picks that aren't all that important, as someone went out and drafted the Steeler defense in the 6^th round. Please, do pick defenses and I will continue to scoop up value while you do so. While your at it, get yourself a kicker so I can get another good running back or wide receiver.

7. Owen Daniels TE, Houston – Not in love with this pick, but with Matt Schaub at QB I now double the points these two ring up. If I am going to get a second tier tight end like this, then far worse fates could happen than being able to double up on points. And the panic continued among the league owners, another two defenses get drafted in the 7^th round (the draft is 15 rounds long) as well as the first kicker. A kicker, in the 7^th round? All I can say to that is thank you.

8. Mike Thomas WR, Jacksonville – Again the odd picks among my league mates, 4 more defenses disappear as well as another kicker, meanwhile I am out getting a guy like Thomas, who has a very good chance to help me, not just once or twice but on a weekly basis. He had 820 yards receiving last year, which isn't phenomenal but for those of you playing in PPR leagues (points per reception, mine isn't but I am trying to help other people here) he was targeted 99 times last season, finished at #30 in receptions and his primary competition for catches, Mike Sims-Walker, is gone. You can do far worse at pick #80 in a draft than this, like a freaking kicker.

9. Kevin Kolb QB, Arizona – I'll admit I am not in love with this guy, he was drafted primarily to cover for Schaub during a bye week, but should Schaub get injured (and I am certainly not rooting for that) he is a starter with a top tier wide receiver to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona has one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year. While there are some publications putting Kolb in as a top 12 QB, I wouldn't go that far but as far as a serviceable backup, yes please.

10. Lee Evans WR, Baltimore – This is where I am definitely filling out bench spots, so I have no problems taking potential over strictly numbers here. Evans can still be a deep threat, even if his numbers in Buffalo do not necessarily show that. This is still a guy that just two years ago had 1000 yards receiving and while he isn't the youngest guy in the NFL, it is still only his 8^th season in the league, far from a washed up point for wide receivers. And having Anquan Boldin opposite him is only going to help him get more single coverage this year. If he gets 800 yards receiving and 5-7 touchdowns then I think I have done good work here, if not than I vastly overrated him.

11. Danny Amendola WR, St Louis – My Lee Evans insurance policy, Amendola emerged as Sam Bradford's #1 option last year in his first year as the quarterback of the Rams. The 689 yards receiving aren't great, but again for you PPR kids out there, he did pull 89 catches, that is 89 points right there without even gaining a yard. Worse fates have befallen far greater franchises in the 11^th round. As an added bonus, he also returns kicks and punts (for leagues that score in those categories), so his 2364 all purpose yards led the entire NFL last season.

12. Rashad Jennings RB, Jacksonville – All I can say is if you are reading this thinking I am the smartest guy in the room, this pick should give you pause as proof I didn't do all of my homework, Jennings is on the IR and will not be playing any time soon. I have already IR ed him and picked up Montario Hardesty to fill his roster spot.

13. Brandon Pettigrew TE, Detroit – A backup to Owens, Pettigrew had a good season last year, getting over 700 yards receiving. And let's not kid anyone, Daniels isn't a sure thing to keep from being injured, he was on the shelf for a significant portion of last season. Should both stay healthy then I might even be able to run two tight ends on weeks where I need to cover for players on byes. Not an ideal situation, but at least it gives me the option.

14. Shaun Suisham K, Pittsburgh – I told you I save my kickers and defenses for late. Suisham's numbers when stacked up against other kickers will not look all that impressive but remember he joined the Steelers half way through the season last year, before that he was sitting at home waiting for the phone to ring. If you are buying into the notion that the Steelers have an explosive offense (I am, they led the league in plays of 20+ yards last season), then getting the kicker that is part of this offense isn't out of the question. As far as leg strength goes, he did nail a 52 yarder in the Steelers last preseason game and is 14-15 from 40-49 yards over the last three seasons.

15. St Louis Rams defense – This was based on three reasons, 1) the Rams made quite a few moves in the off season to improve this unit. It may not be the Bears circa 1995, but it will not be the Rams circa 2010 either, 2) The Rams offense is not the explosive sort that will put together three and four play scoring drives, most drives are going to be of the longer play variety which means the defense will not be on the field. The easiest way for your defense to not give up points is to not be on the field, and 3) the Rams play in the worst division in football. That right there means you have 5 games where they are guaranteed to play some shitty competition (they play San Francisco in Week 17, but most leagues have finished play by then), which can only help. Throw in dates with Washington, Cleveland and Cincinnati and half of there schedule (8 of the 16 fantasy weeks) is against very beatable competition.

Now we just sit back and wait and see how good I did. All of this chatter above may be for nothing, or it may prove I am a genius beyond compare, but if there is one thing I am sure of, I just bored the shit out of 95% of you.