I haven't done one of these in a while, so bear with me. But I do need something to do between waiting for the 24hour window expiring on my laptop (everything is still running all okely, dokely) and I could either be all responsible adult like (yeah, like that is going to happen) or I could be all “steal some other peoples ideas and make a blog all you own”. Yeah, I am going with the latter option.
Before my first fantasy football draft I handed out some very basic rules that I have come to live by when it comes to fantasy football and drafting players. Tonight will be draft #2, and rather than get all rules-y, instead I am going to pick 10 players I hate more than everyone else heading into the upcoming season. By hate, I do not mean I despise them, they may very well be fine upstanding human beings, nor am I suggesting that you shouldn't draft these players, only that I believe that they are going higher than they are actually worth.
For the record, the numbers regarding draft position are based on the numbers tallied by Sportsline.com to this point. You can argue whether or not Sportsline is better than ESPN or Yahoo or any of a number of other sites out there that also host fantasy football, but rest assured that the numbers are not ones I have pulled out of my ass, but are from a pretty legitimate source when it comes to where these players are being taken in typical drafts.
Michael Vick QB Philadelphia Eagles – ADP 6 – It is not that Michel Vick doesn't have the potential to be good, very very good actually. But this love affair with him that has him being taken as the first quarterback overall is a bit much. This is an instance where people are buying the past. Not that there is anything wrong with looking at a players previous numbers in making a determination of what to expect in future seasons, but career years are rarely if ever repeated. And you don't get points based on what a guy did last year. What Vick had last year was a career year for him, 30 TDs (21 passing) and accounting for almost 3700 yards of offense is a ceiling for Vick, not a floor. And the league started to catch up to Vick at the end of last season, he threw interceptions in each of his last 6 games (he also lost 5 fumbles over that span). So are you buying the Michael Vick who had 11 TDs and 0 INTs over the first 10 weeks or the one that had a an 11-7 split over the final 7?
Steven Jackson RB St. Louis Rams – ADP 17 – I like Steven Jackson. For the longest time he was about the only thing with the Rams worth watching. But it is that longest time things that scares me here. In fantasy there is the unwritten rule on running backs, usually that they peter out by age 29. Jackson is 28 and some of those signs may be starting to show here. He carried the ball 330 times last year and his yards per carry were a very pedestrian 3.8. In games where he didn't reach that YPC, it wasn't that he didn't have ample opportunity, his carry totals in those contests were 22, 22, 23, 29, 28, 19, 24, so it wasn't opportunity, it was results. And he is a year older now.
Hakeem Nicks WR New York Giants – ADP 25 – Alvin Harper! When I see Nicks, that is who I think of. People may remember Harper, he was opposite Michael Irvin on those great Cowboy teams, and Irvin garnered enough attention that it allowed Harper to roam free and pad his stats a bit. The problem came when Harper's contract ran out and he was looking for big time money for the numbers he posted. The Cowboys didn't bite and Harper went to Tampa Bay, where he became the #1 receiving option and quicky disappeared into obscurity, because the attention a #1 receiver sees (lots of two and three man coverages) is much different than that seen by a secondary option. Nicks was the beneficiary last season of not being the #1 option, that responsibility fell to Steve Smith, but now Smith is gone and Nicks has to prove he is more than a secondary option. Given he only broke 100 yards receiving 4 times in a 16 game season, there is little to suggest here that he can consistently put up big numbers.
Cedric Benson RB Cincinnati Bengals – ADP 41 – Will the real Cedric Benson please stand up? Is he the guy who couldn't take the starting job away from Thomas Jones in Chicago, or is he the guy who two years ago 1251 rushing yards with the Bengals? Last year was a little of both, while he again eclipsed a thousand yards rushing (1111), his YPC were a very unimpressive 3.5, this in an offense that had other weapons in Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. All three of them are gone now, so if Benson had problems producing when he wasn't the focal point of the offense, how are things going to be better now that he is?
Knowshon Moreno RB Denver Broncos – ADP 38 – I don't get it, here is a player who didn't rush for even 800 yards last season. And now there is the added plus of knowing Willis McGahee has been working in the goal line first team offense. McGahee's claim to fame is that he poaches short yardage touchdowns, ask any Ray Rice owner. So for Moreno to be of use, he is either going to have to outplay McGahee in short yardage, or break long TDs . Given his longest run in two seasons in the NFL is just 36 yards, that doesn't seem likely.
Steelers DEF Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP 70 – I can't say this enough, don't draft defenses early. In a 12 team league this would be a 6th round pick. For what, an extra point or two a game at best? Putting aside the issues with the Steelers defense (Harrison, Polamalu nursing injuries, an aging defensive line, questionable secondary), you can get more in the 6th round than this. Serviceable defenses will be available later and with little harm to you on a weekly basis.
Mikel Leshoure RB Detroit Lions – ADP 92 and Ryan Williams RB Arizona Cardinals – ADP 95 – This is what happens when your league drafts too early. Both players may go on to have great NFL careers, but both are out for the season with injuries.
Jahvid Best RB Detroit Lions – ADP 45 – Two Lions running backs on the list, maybe I have it in for the city of Detroit. Or maybe it is just reality. Best comes with a significant injury history in his second season in the NFL, concussions in college and turf toe in his first NFL campaign, and was just bad from a fantasy perspective, 555 yards rushing, 3.2 YPC, 4 TDs and in no game last year did he break 100 yards rushing, his best output was just 78 yards, so Best didn't even steal you a week last season. Forget the second coming of Barry Sanders, Best might not even be the second coming of hockey analyst Barry Melrose.
Yeah, this list has been pretty RB heavy, so I had better throw in a WR before I run out of my 10 slots.
Roy Williams WR Chicago Bears – ADP 116 – To paraphrase Chris from “Family Guy”, “How does Roy Williams keep getting work?” At what point can we call a failure a failure? In his 7th year in the league, Williams has been involved in some pretty pass happy offenses in both Dallas and Detroit, yet he has one good season to show for it. You can get better odds at the casino than you can by drafting Williams.
I dislike Vick for other reasons. There are a few players that I think are more of a disruption in the club house then they are worth their time on the field. He is a distraction to himself and others.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how much of a disruption he is, for the most part he seems to have cleaned up his act since his dog fighting days. Of course all of that is irrelevant to me when writing about a player's fantasy value. My only question in writing this is "Does the player merit being drafted at their current spot?" Would I make Vick the first quarterback taken on my list? No, I would take a few other guys ahead of him (Brady, Rivers, Brees, Peyton Manning to name 4), so his placement as not just the top QB, but #6 overall doesn't work for me when in QBs alone I would have him no higher than 5, possibly even lower. Now if I am drafting and Vick is still on the board in say the late second/early third round, that is a different discussion but I will let someone else chase him if he is going in the first six picks of any draft I am in.
ReplyDeleteIsn't Manning injured?
ReplyDeleteHe is still recovering from off season surgery. He is expected to be ready for Week 1, but I would anticipate him being rusty. I would still take him over Vick, and would probably keep him in the top tier of QBs, but it wouldn't be all that shocking if he has a bad game or two to start the season while he tries to get up to speed. On the plus side, if he can go Week 1, he almost certainly will because the other Indy QBs frankly suck. Because of that, if you are of the notion that Manning is not going to be ready, or as good as previous seasons (which I would argue is a legitimate approach to take given his off season surgery and lack of preseason work) I would say that you should also make adjustments for the rest of the Colts skill position players (Wayne, Collie, Garson, Clark, Addai) because that team is only good on offense if Manning is on the field.
ReplyDeleteESPN thinks he might be out for a couple weeks. He still has not been released by team doctors to play. From the NFL injury report
ReplyDeletePeyton Manning, QB Questionable Aug 20
Comment: Manning (neck) says he will not play in the preseason and his availability for the regular season won't be known until before Week 1. "I won't play in [the] preseason. I am going to need these next two weeks, every single second," Manning told CBSSports.com. "I think in two weeks I'll have a better answer for you. I'm going to need these next two weeks to get even healthier."
He has not been practicing. He had neck surgery that had a 10-12 week recovery time and he is not back from that yet. That doesn't sound so promising. I might draft him as a back up at the moment but not plan on him as a starter for the first week or so.
I knew he would be out for the preseason, if he is to miss any regular season time remains to be seen. It is one of the reasons I am an advocate for the later the draft date, the better. Like Leshoure and Williams above (especially Williams who got hurt in the last week), the rosters early on are just to unsettled and drafting becomes more of a crap shoot than anything else.
ReplyDeleteIf Manning is to miss any regular season time, it may affect his value somewhat to me. At that point I might put Vick ahead of him, but for a large portion of the quartebacks out there, I would still take 14 weeks of Manning over 16 weeks of the numbers they will put up.
I was listening to an interview on ESPN radio yesterday and there was major speculation about Manning's ability to start the season. Irsay tweeted over the weekend that Manning isn't ready to play and will miss the opener. He had the surgery the end of May for a disk issue in his neck. He had another neck surgery in March for a pinched nerve. He has not played any pre season games and has not done any hard work outs. Physically he might not be ready.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget, one of the things about the lockout was that he couldn't use any team facilities for treatment.
ReplyDeleteThe team physician was allowed to stay in contact with his doctors but no he couldn't use team facilities. That's one of the reason I am worried about him being ready.
ReplyDelete