Blogger 365 Day 212 - 10 Players I Hate More Than You (Part 1)

     Well it would seem there is a pretty good chance that once again this year I will be participating in a fantasy football league.  It will not be the bar league I was in for almost 20 years, I am pretty sure that league is dead and buried, but a couple of my friends have a league and they are looking for another team or two to join and it will be nice to get back in the saddle again, so to speak.  Plus it will give me plenty  of things to write about in the coming days, and when trying to grind out a daily blog a variety of topics is always a good thing.  Not that this will be nothing but a clearing house for all things football, there are plenty of blogs out there that do a far better job than I ever could, but since this is page does tend to focus on things that are of interest to me and fantasy football is one of them, then that topic will come up from time to time in the future.

     With the explanation out of the way, I am going to update a blog I did a few times in the past, that being the 10 Players I Hate.....   Yes, I stole the idea, but when writing a column/blog like this, it isn't so much the idea that matters, because for any person those 10 players could be vastly different and with a different set of arguments for what brought about that conclusion.  The 10 Players blog is not meant as an argument against adding the named players to your fantasy team (should you play fantasy football) rather it is an argument that the players listed are being drafted in fantasy leagues far sooner than I would draft them.  For purposes of where players are being selected the rules are simple, assume a 12 team league and the data regarding where picks are being taken is courtesy of Yahoo sports, so if a person is being projected as the 16th pick overall, that would be the 4th pick of the second round.  Okay, with all of the explanations and ramblings by me out of the way, let's get this party started.

     1) DeMarco Murray RB Dallas - Average draft position 19.9 - The problem with Murray isn't in he potential, rather in the results.  In three NFL seasons he has yet to play a full 16 game schedule, having missed 11games out of the first 48 of his NFL career.  When he is on the field the numbers are very nice, arguably RB1 worthy, but when there is a 20%+ chance that he will not be playing, well that is a bet that I don't want to tae, certainly not in the second round.

     2) Montee Ball RB Denver - Average draft position 10.4 -  A rookie last season, Ball has a relatively small sample size and given he lost the starting job to Knowshon Moreno last season, Ball probably did not get enough carries to prove himself.  With Moreno no longer in Denver Ball will get a chance to show what he can do, but if his pass blocking does not improve, which was one of the major reasons he lost the starting job last year, there is no reason to believe he will not be on a short leash again this year.  With an average draft spot in the first round, that is not a risk I would be willing to take with that high a pick, there are better, more consistent picks that can be made that early in the draft.

     3) Seattle DEF Seattle - Average draft position 55.1 - This is simply because I make this argument almost every year, unless you are in a league that significantly skews defensive scoring, the average point differential in defenses is pretty minimal among the better units.  What was the difference between the best unit  last season (Seattle) and the 7th best unit (St Louis)?  Roughly 2 points a game, and St Louis is going over 20 picks later in leagues right now.  So you could spend a pick in the 6th round and get Seattle, or you could wait for three rounds, and get a unit and all it will cost you is a couple of points a week, points that you will easily make back by drafting an offensive player in the 6th round. 

     4) Stephen Gostkowski K NE - Average draft position 73.5 - All of the arguments against drafting a defense too soon apply here as well, but moreso.  Taking all of the kickers that are currently being selected in mock drafts this year, the difference between Gostkowski and the last kicker being taken Shaun Suisham (ADP 146.3) is 2 1/2 points per game.

    5)  Robert Griffin III QB WAS - Average draft position 61.0 -  This is simply a matter of who is currently being drafted behind RG III, as RG III could easily be a QB1 for the coming NFL season, but last season, albeit in an injury shortened season, RG III was the 31st ranked passer on throws downfield of 10 yards or more.    While RG III can make plays with his legs that other quarterbacks in the league caan't, I am not sold on him nearly enough to be drafting him ahead of other QBs, such as Tom Brady (ADP 69.1), Tony Romo (ADP 85.9) or even Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 119.0).

     Okay, we are halfway home, I suppose I could bang out another 5 names but then, why would you come back tomorrow?  No, I think I will call it a night and get back at this manana.