Multiply 365 Day 4 - Fantasy draft report card

Some of this will look familiar to you, and it should as I posted it previously, but some of it is also new because now I get to take a step back and see what I did right and what I did wrong this year.  Yes, it is time to see just how I did in my fantasy football draft many months ago.  It is easy to sit down after a draft and speculate on how one does, it is far harder to  come back many months later and defend the thinking process in lieu of empirical, or at least statistical data.  In some cases you get it right, in others you are just completely wrong.  So which were right and which were wrong?  Let's delve into that shall we.



1st rd  Adrian Peterson (2) RB Minnesota - Really if you have a pick in the top two and you don't come away with either Peterson or Chris Johnson you have done your team a disservice.  CJ went first making my decision for me in this particular case.

-Finished the season 6th in the NFL in rushing yards (1298) and scored 12 TDs, also chipped in with 341 receiving yards and 1 TD.  Very few guys tally 1600 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs in one year, so this goes as a very good pick on my part.

2nd rd Calvin Johnson (23) WR  Detroit - By this point in the draft 13 RBs had already been taken, as had 4 QBs, so I could either take a flyer on a QB (Schaub was still available at this point) or do like I did last year and try to lock down a position with almost back to back picks.  I opted for the later strategy, getting Johnson followed by

-1120 receiving yards (9th in NFL), 12 TDs.  More on this after the next pick.

3rd rd  Greg Jennings (26) WR  Green Bay - If all goes according to plan and admittedly some times in fantasy it doesn't, there is as much luck avoiding injuries as anything else, I now have a running back good for 1200+ yards and two 1000+ receivers.

-1265 receiving yards (4th in NFL), 12 TDs.  Reading back on Jennings description for what I wanted out of the top three picks I can honestly say that I went 3 for 3.

4th rd  Arian Foster (47) RB  Houston - By the end of the third round all of what I would consider the elite level of QBs were gone (Peyton Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Schaub, Romo, Rivers) so I knew I was going to be stuck with a second tier-ish kind of guy, which to me isn't 4th round value, so instead I looked on the board for a RB that would be a starter and this is what I came up with.

-Steal of the draft, plain and simple.  No doubt next year this guy will be one of those targeted in the top two or three selections overall, the fact I got him in the fourth round just makes his production all the more impressive, 1616 rushing yards (led NFL), 16 TDs and 604 receiving yards and 2 TDs added to those totals for good measure.  It doesn't take a brain surgeon to say that he will not be available in the fourth round next year.

5th rd  CJ Spiller (50) RB  Buffalo - This was probably my first reach pick of the draft, there is no guarantee Spiller will even start in Buffalo, but with their other RBs nursing injuries (Lynch, Jackson) Spiller has seen the most work with the first team offense in the preseason and has played so well that there is talk he may keep the job even when the others come back.  Last year I threw a mid round pick at Ray Rice, even though it was uncertain if he could beat out Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain and that turned out okay for me, I will be happy if something similar happens here.

-My first reach pick was my first bust pick.  He never supplanted Jackson as the starting running back in Buffalo, even after Lynch was traded to Seattle.  His contributions were limited mostly to special teams, which is of little fantasy value in most leagues.  His stay in my starting lineup was brief to say the least.

6th rd Justin Forsett (71) RB Seattle - He should be the starter in Seattle, but it isn't carved in stone.  If either my 5th or 6th rd pick hits, I am all but set at RB for the season.  If not, then I may have some issues with my flex position on my roster this season.  One spot on our roster on a weekly basis is dedicated to a flex player, that is the player can either be a WR or a RB, so on any given week you end up playing 2 RBs and 3 WRs or 3 RBs and 2 WRs so depth at one if not both of those positions is a good thing.

-What happens when your 5th and 6th picks don't pan out.  Say hello to the waiver wire, that's what.  Forsett did such a non descript job that Seattle went out and traded for the aforementioned Marshawn Lynch.  Seattle ended up having the worst rushing offense in the NFL, thankfully I was able to find a couple of steals on the waiver wire to fill in at the flex position in BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16th in NFL in rushing) and Steve Johnson (11th in NFL in receiving yards) so the previous two picks didn't darken my fantasy doorstep for too long.

7th rd Matt Ryan (74) QB Atlanta - Okay, this was a need pick as much as anything.  That being said I wanted a guy who hopefully hadn't hit his ceiling yet, that is you know have already seen the best a player will offer.  This will be Ryan's third year in the league, in his first two he threw for over 20 TDs, and while I don't expect any record breaking performances from him there is a chance he could improve yet and even if he doesn't, as long as he doesn't regress I can get some serviceable if unspectacular games from him.

-All I asked for was progress out of Matt Ryan and that is all I ever got.  In his third season in the NFL he finished 9th in passing yards (3705), 6th in passing TDs (28, tied with Aaron Rodgers) and only threw 9 interceptions on 571 attempts.  This is another guy next year who will not be available this late in draft.  he may not go in the first round, but he will not be languishing on the board in the 7th either..

8th rd Donovan McNabb (95) QB Washington - More or less an insurance policy for Ryan.  Unlike Ryan, we probably have seen the best McNabb has to offer, but that isn't too shabby.  Considering that in most leagues on Sportsline.com McNabb's average draft position is 92.59 I would say I got him just about where everyone else is taking him.

-Insurance my ass.  Thank goodness I didn't need McNabb, as he played poorly enough that by the end of the year he was riding the bench behind equally inept Rex Grossman.  I wasn't wrong in suggesting his best years were behind him, they are so far back after this season that I am not even sure they are viewable in the rear view mirror.

9th rd Zach Miller (98) TE Oakland - This was a bit more of a reach on my part, but I hadn't drafted a tight end yet and he seems to have the surest hands of anyone on the Raiders.  With a new quarterback coming in (Jason Campbell) I wanted a tight end that I figured would be targeted alot until Campbell got more comfortable with the Oakland WRs.  And lets not kid anyone, this late in the draft the elite level TEs are all gone, so much like my QB I wanted a second tier guy with upside.

-The injury bug bit me here a bit, as Miller missed some time during the season with an injured foot.  Still he managed a respectable 685 receiving yards and a career high 5 TDs.

10th rd Eddie Royal (119) WR Denver - Probably my first pick I was a little uncomfortable with.  On one hand, Kyle Orton did throw for a decent amount of yardage last year in Denver, on the other a huge chunk of that went to Brandon Marshall, who has since left the team.  If Royal returns to the ways of his rookie season (91 catches) versus his second season (31 catches) this will be a decent grab, otherwise I am just pissing in the wind with this pick.

-Not as bad as last year, but not that good either, Royal managed just 59  receptions for 627 yards and didn't surpass 50 receiving yards in his last 12 games.  Brandon Lloyd ended up being the primary receiver in Denver this year, making this pick a bad one.  

11th rd Chris Cooley (122) TE Washington - Thank you broken ankles.  Last year Cooley broke his ankle, limiting himself to just 7 games and his statistics fell off accordingly.  Prior to that he was among the top 5 or 6 tight ends in the NFL and very well could be again, provided he stays healthy.  Given how he has been drafted on average around 92-93 in Sportsline leagues, the fact I was able to scoop him up almost a full 30 picks later in our league is something I am rather happy about and he gives me a decent option of the Zach Miller experiment fails.

-On the plus side he managed to accumulate 849 yards receiving, on the minus side he scored only 3 TDs.  This is the reason when I go into a draft I tend to focus more on yards and less on TDs, because TDs are too much of a variable to be relied upon heavily.  Sometimes you will have someone like Cooley who will post consistently decent yardage numbers (he never had below 734 yards in a season where he played 16 games) yet his TD numbers during those years are all over the map (7,6,8,1,3).  There will always be guys who poach TDs, but I will take consistent play any time and hope for scores than play a game of roulette and guess who may get a lot of scores in any particular season.

12th rd Ryan Longwell (143) K Minnesota - As I have said many time previously, don't draft a kicker or a defense too soon.  On a week to week basis the points you are going to get from them are marginally different from just about any other kicker.  Let someone else go waste a 5th or 6th round pick on a Steven Gostkowski, you should be drafting for far bigger fish in those rounds, guys that can do much more to help your team.  The thing you should concern yourself with is will my kicker be on a team that scores points and is he relatively accurate.  Last year the Vikings scored points a plenty and Longwell was 26 of 28 on FGs, including 8 of 9 from 40-49 yards.  I'll take that in the 12th round.

-Longwell finished 27th in the league in scoring, but like I said in my post, never go too high on a kicker.  When it became apparent that the Vikings were not going to be scoring points at the same rate as last year (Brett favre couldn't retire too soon for my tastes) he became expendable and I ended up finishing the season with Neil Rackers, who finished 7th in scoring and was 27-30 on field goals including 3 of 4 from 50 yards and beyond.

13th rd  Miami (146) DEF Miami - Simply a need pick here, I took two chances on defense, in this round and later (15th (170) San Diego), if either one of them plays average I can live with taking them this late.

- Since I combined these two picks in my original entry I will combine them here as well.  I said that if either defense is average I can be content and there is no need to chase a defense too early.  Of the 32 teams in the NFL, MIami finished 6th in total defense, San Diego was 1st.  Let someone else chase the flavor of the month 5 to 7 rounds earlier, there is always value to be found later on defense and rarely if ever is a fantasy season going to be won or lost based on defensive points over the course of a season.  A defense may win or lose you a game or two, but in the grand scheme of things they are interchangeable save for the really crappy ones (Denver, Washington, Houston).

14th rd Toby Gerhart (167) RB Minnesota - With Chester Taylor now in Chicago, Gerhart could well be the handcuff to Adrian Peterson.  For those not in the know, a handcuff is a guy you draft in case the starter gets hurt.  Not that I am banking on Peterson getting hurt, but should the situation arise I may very well have the guy next in line to take over.

-I mentioned why I drafted him, in case Adrian Peterson got hurt.  Peterson missed one week (when I was on a bye) so Gerhart did exactly what I was hoping he would do, keep my bench warm.

16th rd Greg Camarillo (191) WR Minnesota - I know it looks like I am big on the Vikings (2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 K) and really I am not.  That being said, Brett Favre will have to throw to somebody and with Sidney Rice out at least 8 weeks after having hip surgery, Camarillo stands a chance to get plenty of looks in the passing game.  Camarillo has caught 50 passes in each of the last two years in Miami where the passing game is at best dreadful and now that he is in Minnesota that total could actually increase.

-...plenty of looks in the passing game."  The comedic stylings of yours truly ladies and gentlemen.  The next pass that Camarillo catches may be his first (okay he caught 20 passes).  Nothing says non factor like a guy who averages less than 2 catches a game.  This would have hurt much more if it weren't such a late pick.

17th rd Jabbar Gaffney (194) WR Denver - If Eddie Royal doesn't pan out in Denver, this is the next logical choice to take over as the team's primary receiver.  Given it was my last pick of the draft (and next to last overall) I really felt comfortable going ahead and taking a reach here.  
-It was a reach and given I didn't plan on playing Gaffney much if at all I wasn't disappointed that I didn't play him at all.  It was more of a hope pick than a need one, and I hope next year I don't draft him.

And with that we have concluded another year of fantasy football.  Now what will I talk about for the next 6 months?  4 days in I would say I have my work cut out for me.