Fantasy football post draft anaylsis - Why I did what I did

I know I posted notes Sunday evening concerning who I drafted and when, and really, unless you are a fantasy football person this entry into the blog is going to be of little to no interest to you.  But for some who may be seeking pointers, or just to examine the cranium of one person who does this on a yearly basis, this will be an explanation of why I did what I did and when I did it.  Unlike last year when I was picking 11th out of 12 teams and managed to hit the ball out of the park on a few of my later grabs (Ryan Grant, Matt Schaub, Ray Rice), rest assured that those guys wouldn't be sitting on the draft board nearly as long this year (they were all gone by the third round), but then I lucked out and got to pick 2nd this year.  Truth be told, I like to either pick early or late, but never in the middle.  Early on you will get one of the best players guaranteed which certainly is never a bad thing to have, whereas late while you might not get your hands on one of the top two or three guys because the draft order "snakes" between rounds, that is it basically reverses, if you pick first in one round, you pick last in the next, picking late gives you almost back to back picks.  Last year by picking 11th I was able over the course of 4 picks (my pick, #12, #12 again and my pick) to lock down an entire position by getting Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, all but alleviating my wide receiver concerns for the rest of the draft two rounds in.  Middle to me just sucks, there are too many players disappearing between your picks and it is probably the hardest position to draft and field a competitive fantasy team in my opinion.    Anyway I didn't have that concern this year, I got the #2 overall and here is how it all played out with my thoughts thrown in for good measure.

1st rd  Adrian Peterson (2) RB Minnesota - Really if you have a pick in the top two and you don't come away with either Peterson or Chris Johnson you have done your team a disservice.  CJ went first making my decision for me in this particular case.

2nd rd Calvin Johnson (23) WR  Detroit - By this point in the draft 13 RBs had already been taken, as had 4 QBs, so I could either take a flyer on a QB (Schaub was still available at this point) or do like I did last year and try to lock down a position with almost back to back picks.  I opted for the later strategy, getting Johnson followed by

3rd rd  Greg Jennings (26) WR  Green Bay - If all goes according to plan and admittedly some times in fantasy it doesn't, there is as much luck avoiding injuries as anything else, I now have a running back good for 1200+ yards and two 1000+ receivers.

4th rd  Arian Foster (47) RB  Houston - By the end of the third round all of what I would consider the elite level of QBs were gone (Peyton Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Schaub, Romo, Rivers) so I knew I was going to be stuck with a second tier-ish kind of guy, which to me isn't 4th round value, so instead I looked on the board for a RB that would be a starter and this is what I came up with.

5th rd  CJ Spiller (50) RB  Buffalo - This was probably my first reach pick of the draft, there is no guarantee Spiller will even start in Buffalo, but with their other RBs nursing injuries (Lynch, Jackson) Spiller has seen the most work with the first team offense in the preseason and has played so well that there is talk he may keep the job even when the others come back.  Last year I threw a mid round pick at Ray Rice, even though it was uncertain if he could beat out Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain and that turned out okay for me, I will be happy if something similar happens here.

6th rd Justin Forsett (71) RB Seattle - He should be the starter in Seattle, but it isn't carved in stone.  If either my 5th or 6th rd pick hits, I am all but set at RB for the season.  If not, then I may have some issues with my flex position on my roster this season.  One spot on our roster on a weekly basis is dedicated to a flex player, that is the player can either be a WR or a RB, so on any given week you end up playing 2 RBs and 3 WRs or 3 RBs and 2 WRs so depth at one if not both of those positions is a good thing.

7th rd Matt Ryan (74) QB Atlanta - Okay, this was a need pick as much as anything.  That being said I wanted a guy who hopefully hadn't hit his ceiling yet, that is you know have already seen the best a player will offer.  This will be Ryan's third year in the league, in his first two he threw for over 20 TDs, and while I don't expect any record breaking performances from him there is a chance he could improve yet and even if he doesn't, as long as he doesn't regress I can get some serviceable if unspectacular games from him.

8th rd Donovan McNabb (95) QB Washington - More or less an insurance policy for Ryan.  Unlike Ryan, we probably have seen the best McNabb has to offer, but that isn't too shabby.  Considering that in most leagues on Sportsline.com McNabb's average draft position is 92.59 I would say I got him just about where everyone else is taking him.

9th rd Zach Miller (98) TE Oakland - This was a bit more of a reach on my part, but I hadn't drafted a tight end yet and he seems to have the surest hands of anyone on the Raiders.  With a new quarterback coming in (Jason Campbell) I wanted a tight end that I figured would be targeted alot until Campbell got more comfortable with the Oakland WRs.  And lets not iid anyone, this late in the draft the elite level TEs are all gone, so much like my QB I wanted a second tier guy with upside.

10th rd Eddie Royal (119) WR Denver - Probably my first pick I was a little uncomfortable with.  On one hand, Kyle Orton did throw for a decent amount of yardage last year in Denver, on the other a huge chunk of that went to Brandon Marshall, who has since left the team.  If Royal returns to the ways of his rookie season (91 catches) versus his second season (31 catches) this will be a decent grab, otherwise I am just pissing in the wind with this pick.

11th rd Chris Cooley (122) TE Washington - Thank you broken ankles.  Last year Cooley broke his ankle, limiting himself to just 7 games and his statistics fell off accordingly.  Prior to that he was among the top 5 or 6 tight ends in the NFL and very well could be again, provided he stays healthy.  Given how he has been drafted on average around 92-93 in Sportsline leagues, the fact I was able to scoop him up almost a full 30 picks later in our league is something I am rather happy about and he gives me a decent option of the Zach Miller experiment fails.

12th rd Ryan Longwell (143) K Minnesota - As I have said many time previously, don't draft a kicker or a defense too soon.  On a week to week basis the points you are going to get from them are marginally different from just about any other kicker.  Let someone else go waste a 5th or 6th round pick on a Steven Gostkowski, you should be drafting for far bigger fish in those rounds, guys that can do much more to help your team.  The thing you should concern yourself with is will my kicker be on a team that scores points and is he relatively accurate.  Last year the Vikings scored points a plenty and Longwell was 26 of 28 on FGs, including 8 of 9 from 40-49 yards.  I'll take that in the 12th round.

13th rd  Miami (146) DEF Miami - Simply a need pick here, I took two chances on defense, in this round and later (15th (170) San Diego), if either one of them plays average I can live with taking them this late.

14th rd Toby Gerhart (167) RB Minnesota - With Chester Taylor now in Chicago, Gerhart could well be the handcuff to Adrian Peterson.  For those not in the know, a handcuff is a guy you draft in case the starter gets hurt.  Not that I am banking on Peterson getting hurt, but should the situation arise I may very well have the guy next in line to take over.

16th rd Greg Camarillo (191) WR Minnesota - I know it looks like I am big on the Vikings (2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 K) and really I am not.  That being said, Brett Favre will have to throw to somebody and with Sidney Rice out at least 8 weeks after having hip surgery, Camarillo stands a chance to get plenty of looks in the passing game.  Camarillo has caught 50 passes in each of the last two years in Miami where the passing game is at best dreadful and now that he is in Minnesota that total could actually increase. 

17th rd Jabbar Gaffney (194) WR Denver - If Eddie Royal doesn't pan out in Denver, this is the next logical choice to take over as the team's primary receiver.  Given it was my last pick of the draft (and next to last overall) I really felt comfortable going ahead and taking a reach here. 

Those who play fantasy football will notice that I only drafted one kicker and will immediately wonder what I will do for a kicker on Ryan Longwell's bye week.  Actually my plan is pretty simple, I doubt I hit a bullseye on all 17 picks you see above, chances are one or two of them won't pan out, someone will get hurt or they will not play up to my expectations.  When that happens I will just dump them on the free agent wire and pick up a garden variety kicker to cover the one week Longwell is off.  I just don't see the logic in ever drafting two kickers, that is one roster spot to me that is just being wasted.  I would rather take a chance on someone who can help my team on a weekly basis than waste a spot on a guy who at best will help it one week out of the year.

With that, we have concluded my recap of my fantasy draft for 2010.  We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.