10 Players I Hate - The Update

Since we are coming up on the last game of the fantasy football season and since the Steelers already played (and lost again, that's 5 in a row now, three to some of the worst teams in the NFL), it is time to join Peabody and Sherman in the Wayback machine and see how the predictions I made before the season started actually panned out. For a refresher course, there is this link

http://mattpritt.multiply.com/journal/item/685/10_Players_I_ Hate_More_Than_You

but I will be doing plenty of copy and pasting so you don't need to go back unless you are just nostalgic or something.

In reverse order, we start with this nugget that concluded my entry

　

10) Plaxico Burress – average draft position 145^{th – Gee, last I checked he was going to jail. This is the absolute epitome of a wasted picked, unless you count the catches he is going to be making in his jail cell, which do not count for fantasy purposes.}

No word on the number of prison catches he made, but being in the clink made him absolutely useless for fantasy purposes. I will give myself a thumbs up here, though honestly this was a layup as far as prognositicating is concerned.

　

9) Stephen Gostkowski – average draft position 91st – I am all for drafting a kicker on a team that scores lots of points, just nowhere near this high. At best you should probably be snagging your kicker in your league's next to last, if not, last round. There will always be plenty of options to choose from, either drafting a kicker from a high scoring team, or one that has a career of being highly accurate. The drop off on actual kicker points is usually very slim, so taking one this early is little more than a wasted draft pick.

Gostkowski has been decent, 21 of 26 on field goal attempts, but this is where draft position come into play. In a standard 12 team league, Gostkowski was being taken in the 8th round, thebfirst kicker off of most draft boards, but I argued that better deals could be had far later in the draft than taking a kicker that early and I would argue I was right, 5 other kickers had more field goals than him, and another 6 finished within two field goals, making drafting Gostkowski that early instead of skill position players a reach at best. Yes I am givinhg myself another thumbs up on that call.

　

8) Cedric Benson – average draft position 78th – A former first round pick of the Bears, it shows how poorly his career has gone when his 747 rushing yards were a career high. Tack on an underwhelming yards per carry (3.5) and the fact he scored only 2 touchdowns all of last year and while you might not find another starting running back at this position in the draft (technically Ray Rice is getting drafted later), you can certainly find better value at other positions, or running backs that have a better upside coming of their team's bench (Darren Sproles, Leon Washington, Fred Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw).

This was a swing and a miss on my part. Despite missing time with an injury, Benson has been a pleasant surprise to those that did not follow my advice. 969 yards rushing, a 4.0 yards per carry average, 5 rushing touchdowns and it is safe to say that Benson was a steal for those that got him, especially as late as the 78th pick. The only downside is that he missed two games due to injury but this still qualifies as a miss on my part.

　

7) Greg Olsen – average draft position 65th – This is not a matter of me coming down on Olsen's ability, as a matter of fact with Jay Cutler as the new Bears quarterback, chances are good this will be Olsen's best year yet. This is simply a matter of tight ends with similar talent getting taken after Olsen. Draft averages have the following coming after Olsen, Chris Cooley (75th), Kellen Winslow (80th), Dustin Keller (94th), Owen Daniels (96th), John Carlson (100th), and any one of them will probably post similar numbers to the ones you will get out of Olsen this year.

Olsen has 6 TD catches, so like I originally stated my posting wasn't based on a lack of ability, but 8 other tight ends have more catches, and thre who were drafted later than him have as many if not more TD catches (Davis 10, Shiancoe 9, Celek 6). I am giving myself my third thumbs up for this call.

6) Braylon Edwards – average draft position 63rd – Let's see, he plays on a team that can't score on offense, plays with two very unproven commodities at quarterback (Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn) and led the league in dropped passes last year. What is it I am supposed to like about this guy anyway?

Edwards managed to get traded out of Cleveland and found himself a new home with the New York Jets. Not that it helped all that much, he still has only 23 catches for 366 yards, absolutely awful numbers for a starting wide receiver, especially one that should be a primary target in an offense. I can comfortably say that I am 4-1 on my players that I don't like.

5)

Santonio Holmes – average draft position 60th – This is an example of a player getting a boost from his performance in the playoffs and Super Bowl, which doesn't help you during the fantasy football season. He has yet to go over 1000 yards receiving in a season, and had just 5 touchdowns last season. This isn't a case of Holmes being a bad player, or that his numbers couldn't be better than the last couple of years, just that he is going far higher than need be. Better value at this position can be found around this point in the draft (late 5th, early 6th), like Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal, who are both going about a round later in most drafts.

Lots of things have gone wrong for the Steelers this year, but Holmes isn't one of them. 1080 yards receiving, 70 catches and as of this typing he leads the league in receiving yards. The better value I spoke of didn't materialize, 16 catches of 20 or more yards and it is apparent I will eat crow on this one. Big thumbs down for me here.

4) Willie Parker – average draft position 55th – The Steelers running game was not very good last year, and Parker can lose touches on both third down (to Mewelde Moore) and in goal line situations (to Rashard Mendenhall). Add to that Parker failed to rush for 1000 yards last year, averaged under 4 yards a carry (3.8) and was even worse in the red zone by a full yard (2.8 per carry) and better value can be had elsewhere.

Everything I got wrong about Holmes I got right about his Steeler teammate Parker. He lost his starting job to Mendenhall and Moore is entrenched as the third down back, leaving Parker just a handful of carries a game. 259 yards rushing, no touchdowns and his yards per carry fell from last year's 3.8 to just 3.3 this year. He has become Mr. Irrelevant in the Steeler offense, just look at his last 7 games (1 rush, 2 yds; 0 rush, 0 yds; 1 rush, 7yds; 6 rush, 24 yds; 5 rush, 14 yds; 3 rush, 15 yds; 3 rush, 12 yards). Yes kids, I will pat myself on the back for this call.

3) Brandon Marshall – average draft position 44th – Contract and behavior issues abound with this pick. Marshall wants out of Denver, so much so that he has thrown tantrums in practice. The Broncos show no sign of wanting to deal him. A marriage made in hell to be sure. Add to that fact that Kyle Orton has looked less than spectacular in the preseason, and that Denver has a few other quality wider receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley and a pass catching tight end in Tony Scheffler and taking Marshall in the 4th round of a draft (assuming a 12 team league) is a bit of a reach.

Mixed bag, but I will take a loss on this one. Marshall has had moments, both good and bad with Orton and his Denver teammates. He is clearly the number one option in the passing game, with 808 yards receiving and 7 touchdown catches. But for Marshall owners he has been feast or famine, in only 4 of 10 games was he able to eclipse 90 yards receiving and better than half of his touchdowns (4) have come in just two games. This is the maddening thing from a fantasy perspective, you get glimmers of greatness followed by bouts of mediocrity. With two players left I am 5-3 on my projections.

2) Roy E. Williams – average draft position 43rd – I am on the outside looking in on this one, people seem to like the fact he will be the number one receiver in Dallas, as evidenced by the fact that he is getting drafted on average in the fourth round, I am just not one of them. This is a guy that couldn't get open last season when he had Terrell Owens on the other side of him and Jason Witten at tight end, I can't see how he is now magically going to start beating the double teams that #1 receivers frequently see. Not that we haven't seen Roy Williams as the primary receiver before, he was in Detroit and that worked out so well that the Lions were willing to part with him, when Calvin Johnson passed him as the Lions primamry receiver.

Hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. Other than his 6 TD catches Williams has had little value, certainly not 4th round value. He is third in his team in catches and yards and could by the end of the year end up behind Patrick Crayton for fourth in both categories. He has lost the #1 role to Miles Austin. Only once this season has he surpassed 100 yards receiving, Austin has done it 4 times, Witten twice and even Crayton has done it once.

1) Clinton Portis – average draft position 23rd – This is a running back that has seen an extensive number of carries the last few years, and the second half of last year father time seemed to be rearing his ugly head. Over the last 8 games last year, Portis averaged only 3.5 yards per carry and scored only twice. Add to that Coach Jim Zorn is looking to use Ladell Betts more on third down situations, and better value can be found farther down the draft board than this.

Before his season was sidelined by a concussion, Portis was okay but not spectacular, 494 yards, one touchdown and a 4.0 average per carry in 7 complete games, so he could have posted decent numbers for a full year, but projections don't earn you fantasy points, results do and being on injured reserve means no results. It is a win for me, albeit a tainted one but at the end of the year nobody remembers how you won, only that you did.

For the record that puts me at 7-3 on the guys I offered my opinion on. I didn't hit them all, but that is the type of record that makes me think I just might know what I am doing on draft day.